Archive for February, 2006

Analysis – 02/02/2006

Another down day for NIFTY. 4% of NSE stocks are now at monthly highs and 32% are at monthly lows. So the situation is fast approaching oversold condition from where an intermediate term rally can emerge. To give you a perspective of how oversold it can get, here are the levels to which monthly lows had dropped on previous pullbacks/corrections:
Pullback/Correction Date % of NSE Stocks at monthly lows
Mid Jan 2006 16%
End Dec 2005 21%
Mid-End Oct 2005 62%
So in this current pullback/consolidation the NIFTY has not declined a lot but the stocks in general have declined significantly, especially the broad market. NIFTY stoks have not corrected too much, if they had corrected significantly then we would have seen much lower levels on NIFTY. Another few days of correction in the broad market and stocks can approach very oversold levels.Let us see. No picks for today, I will be waiting to see what happens in the next 2-3 days and then decide on initiating positions.

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Analysis – 01/02/2006

NIFTY had a down day much in line with the market internals. The percentage of stocks at monthly highs is currently around 7% and stocks monthly lows is around 27%. It is very important to follow this pullback closely and see how far it will go and how the price reacts around the price 2927 (the previous high) which is the main support at the moment.There is another chart that I keep an eye on that cautions me about coming corrections/pullbacks – NSE Overbought – Oversold Stocks. This is a running sum of net overbought minus oversold stocks on NSE. Usually this line diverges from NIFTY just before corrections/pullbacks. Currently it has diverged too. I have marked the current & previous divergences on the chart:

nse-ob-os-01022006.jpg

Picks

SUNPHARMA – Moving out of pullback & almost brokeout today.

JPASSOCIAT – Brokeout 1-2 days ago, still buyable at this level.

GRASIM – Brokeout today but closed lower within the range. Keep an eye on this one.

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